HEADLINE

France’s PM Bayrou teeters on collapse as parliament votes amid economic strain

LEAD

On 8 September 2025, Prime Minister François Bayrou, already France’s fourth PM in three years, faces what appears to be a fatal confidence vote in the National Assembly—pushing France to the edge of political collapse while alarmed markets watch closely.

BACKGROUND & CONTEXT

• President Macron’s government has struggled to govern with a fragmented parliament since the 2022 elections.

• Bayrou’s austerity-heavy budget, which included cutting public holidays and freezing welfare, was designed to rein in France’s ballooning deficit but has triggered cross-party backlash.

• Mounting debt at 114% of GDP and voter fatigue with political churn have amplified the crisis.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. The confidence vote is expected on Monday evening, with most analysts predicting Bayrou’s defeat.

2. Investor unease is rising: bond spreads are widening amid fears of a ratings downgrade.

3. If Bayrou falls, President Macron will face either fractious coalition negotiations or the risk of a snap election—both destabilizing scenarios.

ANALYSIS

• Institutional Fragility: The rapid turnover of prime ministers highlights France’s deepening governance instability.

• Economic Alarm: Political paralysis risks eroding fiscal credibility and complicates EU-wide efforts at economic coordination.

• Polarized Choices: Macron’s options are limited—appoint a centrist caretaker or risk empowering the far-right, further fragmenting the political landscape.

CONCLUSION

As Bayrou awaits the outcome, France stands at a precarious crossroads. Whether coalition maneuvering or electoral upheaval defines the next phase, the eurozone’s second-largest economy is set to remain under intense scrutiny from both markets and European partners.