Introduction: The Shifting Fate of the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, has withstood the test of time, including three wars between the two countries. However, its future is now uncertain as recent developments have escalated tensions between the nations. The Indian government’s decision to pause the treaty highlights the shifting dynamics caused by the terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir and their impact on India’s ability to utilize its rights under the treaty.

In response, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif‘s office has issued a stern warning that any violation of the treaty—specifically, stopping or diverting water flow—would constitute an “Act of War.”

What is the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)?

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank between Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan. This landmark agreement regulates the sharing of the Indus River system‘s waters, consisting of six major rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.

• India receives exclusive rights to the waters of the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).

• Pakistan controls the waters of the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), although India can use these for non-consumptive purposes like hydropower and irrigation.

The agreement was designed to ensure fair water distribution, with Pakistan receiving 80% of the water and India 20%. It has since stood as a symbol of cooperation despite multiple conflicts.

The Crucial Role of the Indus Waters Treaty for Pakistan

The Indus Waters Treaty is critical for Pakistan’s agriculture, economy, and energy sectors. The Indus River system irrigates nearly 80% of Pakistan’s arable land, supporting half of the nation’s workforce and accounting for a significant portion of its GDP. The water from this system also sustains major cities like Lahore, Karachi, and Multan, and powers essential hydropower projects.

In 1961, Sir William Iliff from the World Bank warned that cutting off water from the Indus system would turn Pakistan into a desert. This underscores the profound dependence Pakistan has on the treaty for survival and prosperity.

Can India Turn Off the Tap on the Indus Waters?

While India has full rights over the eastern rivers, it lacks the infrastructure necessary to stop or divert the flow of the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Building dams and reservoirs on these rivers will require years of planning and construction.

Currently, India is working on hydropower projects like Ratle (850 MW), Pakadul (1,000 MW), Kiru (624 MW), and Kwar (540 MW) on the Chenab River. However, the scale of infrastructure required to significantly alter the flow of water remains a long-term challenge.

Mechanisms for Dispute Resolution under the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty includes provisions for resolving disputes through a multi-layered approach:

• The Indus Waters Commission serves as the first line of defense, with one commissioner from each country.

• If the two parties cannot resolve a dispute, the issue may be referred to a neutral expert or a Court of Arbitration.

• The Court of Arbitration, composed of seven members, includes representatives from both countries and impartial arbitrators.

This system ensures that any disagreement can be addressed legally and diplomatically, preventing unilateral actions that could escalate tensions.

What Lies Ahead for the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty does not have an exit clause, meaning that neither India nor Pakistan can unilaterally withdraw from it. Instead, Article IX outlines procedures for settling disputes over the treaty’s interpretation or implementation.

The Indian government has decided to suspend the treaty rather than withdraw, raising complex legal questions about how this decision aligns with the treaty’s framework. The future of the treaty depends on the legal challenges ahead and the diplomatic relations between the two nations.

The Indus Waters Treaty, one of the world’s longest-standing international agreements, has survived decades of conflict and tension. However, with the ongoing cross-border terrorism and geopolitical instability, the treaty’s resilience is being tested like never before.

Conclusion: The Indus Waters Treaty in the Balance

As India and Pakistan navigate through a volatile period marked by diplomatic tensions, the fate of the Indus Waters Treaty remains uncertain. While both nations are bound by this crucial agreement, the increasing pressure from terrorism and regional instability puts its future at risk. How India and Pakistan resolve these challenges will determine the future of the treaty and the vital resources it governs.